Branded by some as an "ology" not even worth uttering, Futurology is dividing the marketing and media worlds in dramatic fashion. Rachel Machin sheds some light on the subject
Raymond Baxter in the 1960s, William Woollard in the 1970s and Maggie Philbin in the 1980s. Iconic presenters for generations of people as they predicted the future on Tomorrow's World, a monumental piece of programming beamed from our TV screens for almost 40 years until it was axed in 2003.
Despite the non-appearance of the robots that were going to change the way we lived in the new millennium, this hugely influential programme still managed to predict the breathalyser test in 1967, computer banking in 1969 and also let us in on the secret that paper underwear would one day become the norm.
You could say Tomorrow's World was the first programme to embrace the concept of futurology, a way of thinking that marketing professionals in the UK are slowly, but surely, embracing.
BT even has its own team of futurologists, who have already predicted that by 2040 we could get a space elevator to take us up to a moon village that will apparently have developed by then. The media and marketing professionals in the North West are utterly divided on the credibility of futurology, but as Mike Ryan, director of Idaho, a new media company that celebrated its tenth birthday in July 2007, says, the word itself is misleading.
"A word like "futurology' sometimes gets misused or misquoted. I don't believe anyone can predict the future - it's not an industry. It's about reading, looking and understanding how the world is moving," he says. "Technology has already disrupted certain industries like travel agencies, record labels and film. There's a need in the business world to know what will be that natural disruption.
"In the US, futurology is a well-established business. It's essentially a road map in a confusing world. Basically, Futurologists help translate technical and scientific stuff into easier language."
Ryan is so convinced about the importance of futurology that he is helping to organise the UK's first ever futurology conference, which will be held in Manchester in 2008 and organised by independent trade association Manchester Digital.
"The conference is not just aimed at marketing people. As life has sped up to breakneck speed we only get involved in groups we're comfortable with. This conference will allow an IT person to sit next to a hospital consultant and talk about whether they have the same view of the future. We want people to go away and be inspired," he enthuses.
The four-day event promises to attract high-profile speakers from across the world to discuss what technology has in store for us in the future.
For agencies like PushON, a search engine marketing and online marketing agency in Manchester, futurology is key to its development.
Managing director Simon Wharton says: "It's good to see a reasoned extrapolation. If you're from a non-IT background you may associate it with astrology, but I believe futurology is essential. It's a British disease to fear thinking ahead."
Wharton is convinced that those who disregard its merits could end up on the marketing slagheap. "Traditional PR and marketing needs a kick up the backside - a lot of it is hugely dated. PR and marketing agencies don't understand the internet.
"A lot of Manchester PR agencies are absolute rubbish - saying you're a full-service agency is just words. Never mind the future: it's what's right now that they're failing to grab hold of. I believe some offline agencies will eventually start buying good digital marketing agencies to stay ahead."
There's no denying that Futurology is considered the bad apple of all the "ologies' simply because it can't be tested through normal scientific means. While there are avid supporters who believe it's a valid service that can be offered to clients, others feel that it is just another fad - another easy way to make money and an exploitation of customers.
"It's bollocks," says Dougal Paver, managing director of public relations consultancy, Paver Smith. "Any statistician and marketer can reasonably use trends to work out how something is going to pan out.
"How can you possibly predict the future when there are events that happen that can knock you for six? It's all guesswork. In essence it's a bunch of social scientists on the make. Call it Nextmonthology, not Futurology. For it to be given credence leads me to believe that there are still nutters on the fringes of our industry."
Paver believes that simply looking at a client's marketplace and making reasonable predictions in the short term that guide the strategy is just as useful as trying to build scenarios 20 years in the future.
Mark Gass, creative director at full-service marketing agency The Raft, agrees. "The trouble with predictions is all they really are, are intelligent extrapolations. And extrapolations are based on the past," he says. "They never see the really big new things coming over the horizon."