Transport issues are at the heart of plans to grow the Midlands economy. Ian Halstead reports on what might happen in 2010.
As 2009 ebbed away, news on the
region’s largest infrastructure projects
was mixed. Site work began at New
Street Gateway, but the mooted runway
extension at Birmingham International Airport
moved from ‘definitely’ to ’maybe’. Then in
January came the unexpected news that
Chiltern Trains was investing £250m to
improve links between London Marylebone
and Birmingham Moor Street.
The Evergreen 3 project, scheduled to start in 2011, promises shorter journey times, better trains and stations, plus more services. It sounds like a dream for commuters and environmentalists, with park-and-ride hubs along the M40 to shift traffic from the roads.
As Chiltern’s chairman, Adrian Shooter, details the proposals, it is clear why the Department for Transport (DfT) found them so appealing. “Unusually for an infrastructure project, we won’t require any subsidy from the taxpayer because Network Rail will provide the initial funding, and we – or the future holder of this franchise – will repay them over the next 30 years,” he says.
Evergreen has certainly been a long time in the planning, as Shooter admits. “We’ve been considering the main line as an option for ten years, and focused intensively on it for two years, during which time we invested several million pounds on bringing the various elements together. We will still require a public inquiry, which I expect to be this summer, then a year from now I would expect to receive a letter from the secretary of state giving us the go-ahead.”
The tipping point was the DfT’s acceptance that Chiltern could have the full 20-year term for its franchise, but matching predicted investment to projected increases in passenger numbers was a big factor. “We have a lot of experience in calculating new revenue, and most years are within a couple of percentage points on passenger forecasts. We’ve been prudent with our forecasts for Evergreen and been careful to assess how different passenger groups view journey time versus cost,” says Shooter.
The project should reduce travel times from Moor Street to London Marylebone to 100 minutes, making it competitive with the West Coast Main Line, especially as Virgin Trains still needs upgrade work. Evergeen’s official completion date is 2013, but Shooter believes it could be “quite a bit before that”, although he won’t be drawn on how the improved Moor Street hub could ultimately fit into the HS2 (high-speed rail) concept.
High-speed rail is certainly on the agenda for David Bull, Birmingham City Council’s assistant director of development strategy. “We’ve commissioned research about the potential economic benefits for Birmingham and the West Midlands because there is talk that a white paper could be published towards the end of March,” he says.
“We’re also holding an HS2 conference at the ICC on 26 February, when we expect Lord Adonis and the shadow transport secretary, Theresa Villiers, to update us so we can argue the case for stations at Birmingham International and New Street.”
Bull’s immediate attention is on the longdelayed Midland Metro extension. He thinks the DfT is close to deciding on Centro’s request for £25m of funding towards the £55m cost of a Snow Hill to New Street link, submitted as part of a £120m business case last October. He says: “All the signs are that it will be a ’yes’, but that could change. I’ve been in Birmingham for seven years and the Metro has failed to progress during that time, but I am now optimistic.”
Bull doesn’t believe a change of government will impact on the DfT’s thinking: “Historically, incoming administrations reduce capital spending on proposed transport projects but not current funding for schemes that are well advanced.”
As Bull mulls the Metro concept, Gary Taylor, executive director at property development company Argent, is thinking about a different solution to city centre transport. The chairman of the Broad Street Business Improvement District (BID) reckons a bus-based rapid transport system makes more sense; whether judged by upfront investment, project development time, efficiency or operating costs.
“We’ve done research over the past year into how a rubber-wheeled bus – like the StreetCar RTV designed and built in Northern Ireland – could operate here,” he says. “We reckon such a system would cost 10 per cent of a Metro or tram system, and when we asked businesses in Broad Street about it as part of our BID renewal proposal 92 per cent were in favour.
“These StreetCars already run efficiently in Las Vegas, so we aren’t debating a theoretical concept, and we calculate that three trams could run in a single loop from New Street to Five Ways and back, taking just ten to 12 minutes for each journey.”
Taylor envisages two other loops, linking Moor Street, Snow Hill, the Jewellery Quarter, Highgate and Eastside. “It will be great to have New Street on stream in 2015, but we have to be looking now at how to connect the rest of the city centre, especially if the government doesn’t release funding for the Metro extension,” he adds.
In the East Midlands, the debate is also very much about HS2, mainline upgrades, station developments and tram schemes. Nottingham’s Express Transit system (NET) is one of the UK’s most advanced and most successful tram networks, and its mooted expansion, along with the £67m redevelopment of the main train station into an integrated transportation hub, will be important to the city’s fortunes.
Roger Summerton, KPMG’s senior partner in Nottingham, is chairman of Nottingham Development Enterprise, a think-tank charity driven by the private sector that has been closely involved with the NET programme. He believes good news is imminent for the hub scheme.
“A lot of partners are involved, and no project of this scale can go ahead without meticulous planning and research, but I expect construction of the new car park in Queens Road to go ahead soon, and I would expect work to begin on the hub later in the year,” he says. “As for the NET, we must remember that all Metro schemes have had extraordinarily long gestation periods, partly because the rail franchises do not stimulate long-term investment.
“The process to bring lines two and three forward is continuing, but I suspect nothing will happen before the election, and I guess it‘s always possible that chunks of infrastructure work might stop if a Conservative government comes in.”
Summerton is optimistic that the A453 improvement project might finally start to come forward during 2010, saying: “It’s been a noose around the city’s neck for so long, and it’s strangling our economic growth because we are the only major city in England without motorway access or a dual-carriageway close to the centre.
“If the A453 is improved, and that is linked to enhancements at the Trent signal box and investment in the East Coast Main Line, the region’s infrastructure will improve.”
Michelle Craven, a partner at the law firm Nelsons, also has a keen eye on transport matters. She is vice-chair of the influential Derby and Derbyshire Rail Forum, which was set up for companies operating in the rail sector but now liaises with local authorities and the East Midlands Development Agency on major projects.
“It’s important that we fight for schemes that will make a difference, especially as the purse strings are being held so tightly by the government,” she says. “I think there is a potential problem with HS2 if the focus is on the link between London and Birmingham, especially following so much investment in the West Coast Main Line. I am not saying Derby and Nottingham would be worse off than, say, Sheffield but it is clearly a long-term concern. I am not convinced that a change of government will make much difference, though. There is campaign talk, and there is the reality of being in power.”
Also in: March 2010
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Climate change
Warwick Manufacturing Group’s founder Lord Bhattacharyya, an ambassador for collaboration between businesses and universities, warned of tough times ahead at Insider’s special event.
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Public affairs
Ian Halstead finds out how the region’s PR agencies are faring after the toughest year on record.