Neil Tague
Insider Property Correspondent
Tague on Tour: I dreamed a dream
Neil Tague looks back on the predictions he made this time last year and gazes into his crystal ball to see what's in store for the property world in 2012.
Stand by your beds, you know the drill here. Yes, it's the end of year predictions blog. Before plunging into this year's predictions like Luis Suarez in pursuit of a penalty, let's have a look at a couple of last year's efforts:
"Rival Lancashire politicians will continue to voice shrill complaints about Preston Tithebarn, although nothing will happen anyway."
Tithebarn bit the dust in October, after vast sums had been pointlessly spent on lawyers. Where would Lancashire be without its exemplary political class, eh? Apart from 'better off', obviously.
"In Manchester, Argent will come under increasing pressure to start building One St Peter's Square from inward investment-chasing city bosses and property agents alike, purely so everyone can have something new and shiny to talk about." Work has indeed now started onsite, thanks to a chunky pre-let and Argent's co-developer being the Greater Manchester pension fund.
"Liverpool FC will release exciting new stadium plans. No one will believe a word of it." We recently flicked through a November 2004 issue of Insider, which even then described Anfield redevelopment plans as "long-awaited". Still waiting.
"A new plan will emerge for Omega, the super-business park that never was. Journalists will be bitchy, agents will get cross." There has indeed been talk of development, but to meet the shortfall in the big shed market more than anything else. People have given up getting cross, though.
So, to 2012. Here are a few thoughts:
Britannia Hotels Group, having beaten Manchester City Council in the London Road fire station CPO inquiry, will not get round to actually starting work on redevelopment.
At least one major retailer will go belly up on or around the first Quarter Day of 2012.
Secondary retail centres will have the devil’s own job in persuading retailers to stick with them as leases expire – expect to see several North West towns hit the unwanted heights in the Local Data Company's next tally up of empty units, then feature in a semi-informed tabloid "Ghost town!" piece.
If asked about the volume of deal activity, agents will solemnly tell journalists that "deals are still happening, but they’re taking much longer to get over the line".
See also "we’re having to work much harder for a lot less".
Manchester will go absolutely massive on MIPIM. Everyone else in the region will only be able to dimly recall what MIPIM is.
Drivers Jonas Deloitte will finally acquire one of the niche Manchester consultancies. Or get bored and just hire some more people instead.
Certain (not all – please note that, lawyers) developers will gripe about the planning system, stubborn banks and ignorant local authorities. They'll still not want to admit that they're effectively operators of surface car-parks and advertising billboards these days, rather than developers.
Comments? Neil Tague, Insider
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About Neil
During his time as assistant editor of North West Business Insider Neil has forged extensive links with the region's property community. He regularly hosts breakfasts and roundtables with the property industry's leading figures.
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