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The last 100 years have seen three other periods when markets have fallen by more than 50 per cent – 1929-1932, 1937-1938, 1974/5. And a W-shaped recovery has followed such deep recessions.

Markets tend to move six months ahead of the economy and if we trace the trend lines backwards, July 2007 was the turning point, being when the markets started to crash. In GDP terms we didn’t see the recession until six months later, in 2008, when it also started to show in the economy.

Because the economy always follows the markets, when the markets jumped from March to September 2009, it was likely the economy would jump from September 2009 to March 2010. It did and the general prediction was a return to recovery.

So that brings us to today, recovery hasn’t followed (because we are in a W recovery) finding us in a flat period before the next boom. Timing in business is critical, but getting there in good shape is vitally important too. In a W recovery, towards the end of this flat phase we may see a short dip for about six months after which the markets will turn around and recover. Pretty much like the previous March – September dip before going back up again.

So how long is flat? No-one knows. History suggests flat phases last two years, but this could be up to ten years.

When people see a flat market, they often believe they can’t do anything about it and their business also goes into a flat mode. But when the market is flat, it’s just an average of business performance. In reality, some are doing well and growing, some are flat and some are in decline.

During a boom time, businesses tend to focus on strategy – acquisitions, recruitment and new products – and forget the micro aspects such as cost management, efficiency and processes. Going into a recession, people switch from the macro to the micro and worry about costs and staff, while forgetting strategy.

During a recession, smart businesses concentrate on strategy – and watch out for the micro – right across the economic cycle.

So how do you create business growth in a flat market whilst preparing for the next boom? The world is likely to panic at the next market dip, this creates big opportunities for the business owner who is confident and secure of how their business sits in the economic cycle and is preparing for the next boom.

Coming out of this recession, there are two ways of creating innovation – looking for niche opportunities and moving into the consolidation game.

Preparation over the next 12 to 18 months is critical in maximising the benefits from the next boom. Working with Darren Shirlaw at www.shirlawscoaching.com, we think that the smart businesses are the ones who:

Will get their numbers right. They will take the time to focus on the ratios, prepare and plan. The idea is to look at what the maximum revenue an organisation can generate and how many people are needed to maximise profit.

Get the timing right. The trick here is to match business development stages to the economic phases.

Package and distribute into niche markets. Businesses may not need to innovate new products, but they probably do need to package lines differently. A tip here is to freshen up the brand, ensure the messages are right and ensure you are talking to people. Identify the customers who will want your products and take those products into defined niche markets.

All is not doom and gloom, our future and destiny is yet unwritten.

Stuart Williams, director at independent insurance broker and business continuity specialist Cowens Survival Capability