In Focus: That uncertain feeling
The prediction made this week of 80,000 job losses in the West Midlands by 2014/15 was all the more shocking because it came from a source that has rarely, if ever, been accused of hyperbole or scaremongering.
If the claim had come from a union representing public sector workers, say, the figure quoted might - fairly or unfairly - have resulted in a few sceptical eyebrows being raised,
But the figure came from the major accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers and scepticism, if it is aroused, might instead be linked to a feeling that the prediction may be overly cautious.
PwC’s research - contained in a report entitled Sectoral and Regional Impact of the Fiscal Squeeze - says the job losses are linked to the imminent public sector spending review.
It reveals the figure is slightly higher than the UK average and that the West Midlands manufacturing sector could be impacted by the cuts with the loss of about jobs linked to reduced public sector demand.
Of course none of us know at this stage what is likely to be contained in next Wednesday’s Comprehensive Spending Review but I don’t think I’m over egging the pudding to suggest that there is a fair amount of trepidation in the market.
I’ve never made secret my view that the government is cutting too deeply and too quickly, is negatively affecting consumer confidence and has unrealistic growth expectations from the private sector.
The Financial Times largely seems to share this view as do other commentators. Many others disagree with it of course.
My main concern is the future of the Midlands economy. This isn’t an impartial concern; I work in it, my partner works in it and it pays our mortgage. I don’t want the area I work in to lag behind the rest of the country in economic terms. I’m fed up writing about skills gaps and low GVA and higher than average unemployment and low research and development spend.
Like everyone else I’m desperately looking for good news. I know there are some people who think journalists bury the good news and accentuate the negative. Let me assure you, nothing could be further from the truth. Writing gloomy stuff makes me feel depressed. I’d rather not have to do it.
The problem is that the whole year seems to have been spent in a state of flux. It started out as a fragile post recession-period, merged into pre-election purdah and then post-election uncertainty and now here we are waiting for the results of a spending review at the end of October.
I for one can’t wait for 21 October. Is it too much to hope for that we can then at last face the future with a degree of certainty? If there is anyone out there harbouring thoughts of a pre-Christmas lull, please keep them to yourself.
Comments? Andy Coyne, editor, Midlands Business Insider
