A whole new world

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A whole new world

Welcome to the most uncertain general election day in many a long year.

I’ve already voted. I live in Solihull, a Lib Dem/Tory marginal constituency. The Liberals took it on a wave of tactical voting in 2005 and the Conservatives need to take it back – and many more seats like it – if they are to achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons. All over the region there are stories like this. I can’t remember an election with so many possible outcomes.

But one thing that is for certain is that when we wake up tomorrow morning we will be in a new political landscape. It may be one that has a Conservative majority government or it may be the first hung parliament since the 1970s. If the latter happens this is almost certain to lead to reforms in the voting system. The Liberals will insist on it.

It’s hard to see the Liberals forming a coalition with the Conservatives. I know that it has happened at the local level – in Birmingham City Council, for example – but it’s hard to see the hardcore majority of either party agreeing to an alliance with a rival with such a different ideological outlook in areas such as taxation and immigration. A Labour-Liberal coalition is easier to envisage.

Those of us old enough to remember the political landscape of the 1970s know that at their worst hung parliaments can become a by-word for inertia. Small businesses fear that that could be the case again. A survey by YouGov of small and medium-sized business decision makers showed that 36 per cent of respondents believe that a hung parliament would be the worst outcome of the election and could reduce or delay investment.

It’s understandable that such fear exists but hung parliaments don’t have to be a bad thing. It could mean that genuinely respected politicians such as Vince Cable can be involved in a government of all the talents instead of spending his career in the “Siberia of permanent opposition”.

Nor does it necessarily mean financial instability. It should be remembered that, in terms of credit ratings, ten of the top 16 countries have coalition governments.

Whatever happens today, the implications of all this for our region are huge. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are committed to keeping the regional development agencies - albeit with a re-focused agenda under a Liberal plan - whereas the future of Advantage West Midlands (AWM) and East Midlands Development Agency (EMDA) under a Conservative administration is much more uncertain.

A group of West Midlands businessmen sent an open letter to a local newspaper a few days ago making the case for AWM’s continued existence, which shows how important an issue this is locally.

And all parties say they are committed to the large infrastructural projects planned for our region - New Street Station, high-speed rail etc - but the Conservatives are also committed to making £6bn worth of cuts this year if they win the election. Given that, like the other parties, they haven’t detailed exactly where the cuts will be made, no public sector project can be viewed with any degree of confidence.

But whatever the outcome, at least the weeks and months of uncertainty will soon be over. From tomorrow we will have a much better idea of what is likely to happen to our economy over the next few years.

Interesting times lie ahead. Of that we can be certain.

Any comments? email Andy Coyne, editor, Midlands Business Insider

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